When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. For comparisons sake, the average age for hitters in the Low-A South Atlantic League (which Heyward aced at 18) was 21.4 in 2011. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. Manager Dave Roberts indicated Taylor would spend 20 to 25 percent of the games there, in addition to his usual work in the outfield. With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). Its not surprising. by Retrosheet. Thompson revived his career in Los Angeles last summer, hitting 13 homers with a .901 OPS. Jason Heyward, who was instrumental in the lore of the infamous Game 7 rain delay, was once the thorn in the side of fans looking for a scapegoat to blame for the club's lack of spending. If you took Jason Heyward in your draft this year you almost certainly spent a pretty penny on him. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity. For my ease, I took five-year averages for both WAR and the cost of a win when calculating the total. Depending how long Rodgers is out of the lineup and whether the Rockies want to let him continue his preparation into the early days of the regular season someone has to play second. At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. Crawford is WAY ahead of simba according to pretty much every defensive metric this year. He flew out to center field in his other at-bat in Friday's game. Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. A few trade pickups last year are rated highly in 2023. Interesting stuff, but isnt this potentially terrible news for Heyward given that the spring spray chart only shows a significant pull increase on ground balls rather than all contact and pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play? 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Aggravating as it might be, we dont know the answers to those questions. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. If Heyward had one or two games where he hit everything the other way, that would make this look way different, and thats why its too early to say anything. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. From 2010-2015, his 25 WAR was one of the top 20 marks in the game and in his final two seasons before free agency, his 10. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Very obviously, he can sting a ball when he gets extended. Its not so stark there are reasonable arguments to be made for Cabreras dominance at the plate, even if they rely on team- and division-based outcomes in the end but there was some of that bubbling under the surface of the debate. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Thats been fairly consistent. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. Every other player produced at an incredibly high level from age 26 to age 35, maintaining their hitting line from 26 to 35 that they had in their early 20s. But thats never safe against a hitter like Betts, who launched it deep over the left-center-field wall at Surprise Stadium. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. Higgins over one inning. Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. So I was like, Im just gonna kind of throw it at him down the middle. And he hit it out. Biggio knows right field well. Heres why. Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. I was just saying the other day that there hasnt been a free agent whos so valuable in this particular waya combination of very good performance and youthsince A-Rod in 2000. by Handedness. Crossword; Sudoku; Crossword; Sudoku _____ About Us All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, The above comparison paints an incredibly optimistic and rosy view of Heywards future, but there is some evidence to suggest that phenoms like Heyward age better than the rest of the population. Trejo, 27, is fine with pushing for all the starts he can at second if thats his opportunity to be in the lineup. Jason Heyward Los Angeles Dodgers Age: 33 Bats/Throws: L/L 6' 5" / 240 OF Quick Look 2022 Games Played: CF: 26 RF: 21 RotoWire News: Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday that Heyward. Using a similar exercise, I found only 28 players with at least 25 fWAR and bWAR (FanGraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR, respectively) since the end of World War II. Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. Over the last four years, he hasnt had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but theres so clearly the potential for so much more than that too few people have come away satisfied. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. On Friday, the Cubs won the bidding for Jason Heyward, convincing the outfielder to come to Chicago despite offers for more guaranteed money from the Nationals, the Cardinals, and reportedly. Heyward Still Part of Chicago, Senga's Physical, Steele's Approach, Farm System, and Other Cubs Bullets from . The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). Searching again for players from 1960 to 2007, limiting those players through age-25 within 20% of Heywards PAs, but instead of using WAR, look at players with a wRC+ between 110 and 125 and within 15 points of Heywards 121 wRC+ at age 25. Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him. by Handedness, Whos Been (Un)luckyThe Starting Pitchers. Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward had glowing praise for manager Dave Roberts, whom he calls a "baseball rat" who loves being around the game. Kiner-Falefa was a defensive whiz with 10 Defensive Runs saved in 2022, helping result in the lowest runs allowed per game in the Bronx since 1981. It happens. He has been a well above-average hitter in the majors at an age when most players are in a short-season league, A-Ball or college. Anyhow, heres where Heyward has hit baseballs in spring 2016: Of course Im wary of talking about anything based on so little data. Dont look at me. Thats just how it goes. by Retrosheet. Yet, its difficult to project just how hell play during the rest of the season. Thats 40-50 points below the NL average and ranks among the likes of Aubrey Huff and Yorvit Torrealba. by Handedness. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. Games. It would be a tragedy if nagging injuries keep him from playing to his full potential. Just a couple years ago, it was Jason Heyward and Giancarlo Stanton that were tearing up baseball, looking like an unprecedented pair of rookie talents ready to continue on into the stratosphere together. He went second to home on a single. This production is, quite frankly, incredible. Only Al Kaline, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Alex Rodriguez were within 15 runs on defense and ahead of him on offense. It really had good numbers on the computer. Its where most hitters are strongest, and when Heyward had his powerful 2012, he hit just three of his homers the other way. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not. Its hard not to fall in love with the fantasy potential of Jason Heyward, especially for those of us who cant forget the cant-miss hype surrounding his debut and a rookie season that seemed like the precursor to imminent superstardom. So what is his value in an auction re-draft league? Im sure you dont think about ground-ball pull rate very often, but I like it as an indicator of change. Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks again, Walker Buehler starts throwing. Quinn worked this winter with hitting consultant Ryan Sutterer, who analyzed Quinns body movements and helped him understand how he can repeat his mechanics on a consistent basis. Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? The WAR group, which constitutes the group most closely approximating the quality of the player Jason Heyward is currently, puts Heyward on a Hall of Fame track. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. It could have something to do with the. Players who rove around the outfield will qualify at the specific outfield position where he played the most innings provided it was a minimum of 75 percent (475 innings) of total innings at the specific position. If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldnt be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth. Its not even clear this would be a good thing. That has something to do with the Angels deciding to play Trout in the corner outfield from time to time, but it also has a lot to do with Heyward having great range for a corner outfielder. The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. Mike Trout represented, perhaps, a belief that we could quantify the other aspects of the game and assign them value. by Retrosheet. Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder none of these are good things. I was like, I really just want to see a strike, Heaney said. Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. I used ten-year figures in this analysis, but moving to an eight- or nine-year contract would not significantly change the values, as the bulk of all production is recorded in the early part of the contract. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The Dodgers lost their starting shortstop for the entirety of the 2023 season in the third game of spring training. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. This spring, Heyward has hit 17 grounders, and hes pulled all but one of them. To bring this all back: There are very early signs that Jason Heyward is focusing more on the pull half of the field. There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. The lowest member of the group, Willie Randolph, still averaged more than three wins per season. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. 1 seed Bradley Braves (24-8, 16-4 MVC) square off against the No. There are only four players ahead of him on both offense and defense: Evan Longoria, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, and Cal Ripken. That Aaron Boone batting order is plugged into the Lineup . Miguel Rojas will replace Lux at shortstop. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. With an injury (and a team deflation) taking some of the wind out of Stantons sails, and Buster Posey blowing up the National League Most Valuable Player debate, the new toys got a lot more attention than the old new ones. Because, even if he did it from the corner outfield, Heyward was able to emulate the Angelic newcomer in a way. Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward . However, if we want some sort of hybrid, we can look at the declines of the offensive comps and the defensive comps and combine them. Heyward was a little below the average offensively and well above the average defensively. I dont want to start my first game of Spring Training going 3-0 on a guy or nibbling. Last season was a huge disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were dropped in the NLDS by the rival San Diego Padres. Cubs president Jed Hoyer announced Monday the club intends to release veteran outfielder Jason Heyward from the final year of his deal at the end of the 2022 season. From 26 to 35, the group got better offensively and the only player who completely busted was Carey Patterson. Even if Heyward were to hit for more power, that might be offset by a drop in singles, or by an increase in strikeouts. Examining The Cubs' Fifth Starter Options from MLBTradeRumors.com at 2/22/2023 4:39:00 AM. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. rates Jason Heyward as the 28th best fantasy outfielder. Consider this an expansion on Matt Klaasens crowning of Jason Heyward as the King oF Little Things if you will. Gift a Membership. Injuries happen and players decline unexpectedly. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. Carpenter upped his power output, and his grounder pull rate jumped from 53% to 68%. Jordan Walker has a 28.5 ft/s Sprint Speed, good for an 80% percentile red lollipop once he gets a Savant slider. He made his MLB debut that night against the Washington Nationals as a replacement for Jason Heyward, going hitless in 3 at-bats. Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . Mark Kotsay did not do well overall, but he was actually averaging around three wins per season from 26 to 30 before having a negative value as his career wound down. BIS found more under-cover evidence of his speed: Heyward only grounded into five double plays in 145 GDP opportunities. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Heyward and David Peralta, a pair of veteran left-handed hitters, could see time against right-handed pitchers. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. The shift movement had already produced some . But in the previous five years, he had bounced between eight different organizations, unable to find his footing in the majors before an opportunity arose with the Dodgers. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. Im not going to worry about it.. His expected BABIP (xBABIP), which is based on home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, and batted ball data, was about .315. Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. FanGraphs Membership. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. fangraphs.com 1d. The Cubs released Heyward. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. Others call it a slurve or even a whirlybird. . by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Prior to the . His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. Notable in the Dodgers lineup is Jason Heyward playing in back-to-back games for the first time this spring, starting in centerfield for the second straight day. SUMMARY My favorite minor story line this season is that the Cubs are paying about $40 million to replace Heyward with Bellinger, and the Dodgers are paying about $0 to replace Bellinger with Heyward. I think thats in the ballpark. Over 55 combined seasons, the group averaged five wins per season. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. From BIS, Heyward had the highest range numbers in the business. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. Heywards small sample of air balls also supports this. sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. Id imagine all those infield popups are at least partly due to his bum shoulder. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com So its difficult to shake the tinge of disappointment thats come to hang around Heyward in the past couple of years, not necessarily because hes done anything wrong he is, after all, just 25 years old and boasts a career .345 wOBA but because in him we see fantasy studliness, and cant help but feel let down each year when he falls short of making good on his immense potential. After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly It took the Dodgers six games into their Cactus League schedule, but they finally achieved the ultimate spring . Now, they are tasked with turning things around this year, in what should be a competitive National League once again. Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. After the home run, back in the zone with offspeed pitches. When signing long-term contracts, teams tend to pay them out equally over the length of the contract. His plate discipline improved as well, as he set a new career best with a 15.1% strikeout rate, fueled by his best SwStr% and Contact% rates yet. A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. Heyward will get paid. Now, increasingly deprived of opportunities to pull pitches, Heyward in recent years has been going the other way more often, and 2014 saw more than 19% of his plate appearances end with him hitting the ball to the opposite field, a new career high, and a credible explanation for the plunge in distance and home runs. Heywards value also wasnt helped by a Braves lineup that finished among baseballs worst in wOBA and runs scored, and if the Braves were to move Evan Gattis this winter to make room for Christian Bethancourt, the lineup likely would only be weaker in 2015. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is. Heywards year wasnt in the same realm as Ott, Mantle or A-Rod, but he outdid Willie Mays, Hank Aaron (outside of the top 25 with a 103 OPS+) and Johnny Bench, among many others, and kept company with Junior Griffey. Eno, how do you have the nerve to put up a Jason Heyward article before an article about Chone Figgins release? The coaches that were working with me were trying to get me to throw a sinker because sometimes my fastball sinks, Oviedo said. Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. With the injury to Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will see time at shortstop while Jason Heyward and Trayce Thompson will play in center field. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. Hitters think about driving the ball in the air up the middle or to the pull side, and then when the contact isnt just right, a grounder gets yanked. Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Putting everything together, we still have not placed a value on those wins. To isolate players similar to Heyward, I looked for players from 1960 to 2007 within five of Heywards 27.8 WAR and within 20% of his 3429 plate appearances. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. The next group of comps considers only offensive production. 5 seed Indiana State Sycamores (22-11, 13-7 MVC) in the MVC Tournament Saturday at Enterprise Center, beginning at 3:30 PM on CBS Sports Network. Then, showing off the kind of speed unexpected from a 6-foot-5, 250-pounder, Walker beat out a dribbler to third for an infield single. There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. Birthdate: 8/9/1989 (33 y, 6 m, 10 d) Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves The team is confident in . We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The Leaderboards. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. It was a true comfort level, not rattled at all. The former Yankees and Rangers first baseman topped out at 97 mph from the left side and struck out the first batter he faced swinging on an offspeed pitch. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). The most important years are likely to be those at the beginning, in which the team hopes to underpay their player. FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . The grounders are just about all pulled. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. I think the Bogaerts and Carpenter examples are meant to show that, while ground ball pull rate might not seem to be related to power at all (as you say, ground balls are not that great usually), Jeff thinks of it as an indicator of change.. . Out of 11 players, only Jim Fregosis production would not have justified a $200 million contract. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Matt Carpenter was the reverse. In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10 All. His rookie year was off-the-charts good Age is the decisive factor here. Gomber is working on a two-seam, sinking fastball that he hopes will work at altitude. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. He has slugged eight homers in 599 plate appearances as a big leaguer. Gotta elevate if youre going to be pull-focused. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Hes still really young The lack of power does prevent easy comparison to most free agent mega-deals. While Heyward is a solid offensive player, he does get a decent portion of his value from defense, which causes some concern about how Heywards value will sustain itself as he ages. Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza. Heyward has been an above average offensive player, incredible on defense, and heading into free agency a few months after turning 26 years old, provides few realistic players for comparison. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted What follows is an attempt to find similar players to Heyward using various methods: WAR, offense, defense, and a hybrid of offense and defense. How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves?